Analysts: Trade War, Shutdown Push Risk of Recession to Six-Year High

By JT Crowe

President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war with China and the government shutdown over his long-promised border wall have pushed the risk of recession to its highest level in six years, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The analysts surveyed over the past week see a median 25 percent chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 20 percent in December’s survey. The Fed also is now expected to keep interest rates steady during the first quarter of 2019 instead of the previously planned hike. The projections still call for two more hikes in 2019, down from four hikes in 2018.

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